posted on 10.17.14

Don Norman, director of economic studies at the MAPI Foundation, reviews the most recent manufacturing dataon industrial activity. Manufacturing production declined by 0.4% in August, the first time since January that output has fallen. We do not see this decline as cause for concern in that it largely reflects a 7.6% decline in motor vehicle and parts production—an adjustment to a surge in inventory rebuilding in July.

The number of manufacturing jobs was unchanged in August; year to date, manufacturing employment is up by 105,000 jobs. Recent stats for new orders and capacity utilization were not stellar but consistent with the outlook. Nevertheless, a worsening trade deficit is a restraint on growth.

MAPI forecasts that manufacturing production will increase 3.4% this year and accelerate to 4.0% growth in 2015. The forecast for 2016 is 3.6% growth in manufacturing production.

Report provided in partnership with the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation.