posted on 11.06.14

The U.S. economy has had a bumpy ride this year. The first quarter had negative GDP growth, largely due to severe winter weather in the eastern half of the country. The second quarter rebounded strongly, more than making up for first quarter losses. The third quarter has been a smaller version of the first half of the year, with both very strong months and weaker ones. As we come out of September the economy has averaged out to modest growth for the year with no signs of any looming problems.

This current stage of the recovery from the recession is on track to peak in mid-2015. The growth rate is then expected to slow to a mild business cycle low in late 2016, but overall economic growth should remain positive. The good news about this gradual recovery is that there are currently no signs of any sector showing “irrational exuberance” and no serious downturn expected for the next few years.

MTI billings have had solid billings following a slow first quarter. The forecast calls for 2014 to end 4.9% above 2013. This will be followed by 8% gains in 2015. Growth will be slower but remain positive at the economic low at the end of 2016.

To see the full 3 page report, log in to the MTI Members Only Area and click on 3rd Quarter Heat Treat Outlook Report in the featured resources box.